Friday, August 19, 2005

Prediction

I predict Telstra will be bankrupt in the not too distant future.

There are a few reasons for this.

They've fired over 50,000 employees (that's 0.5% of working Australia) as well as over half their employees on non-negotiable AWAs already. Their rampant outsourcing has left them with the inability to increase profits in this manner. And people are getting a bit sick of those sub-continental phone invasions of privacy.

They will be privatised, and Barnaby's donation isn't going to help fiscal matters.

They're already in the sponsor-absolutely-everything marketing mode, and I doubt it's likely they'll be willing to taper this off to save money. Which sport doesn't have a Telstra logo somewhere?

They are making terrible expensive decisions, Sensis anyone?

The likes of Vizard in the ranks doesn't help the company.

They already use the cheapest possible hardware, and have cut back to bare bones in pretty much every area possible. Their cheap and nasty DSLAM hardware supplier went bankrupt for a while, whilst other up-and-comers are using Cisco.

The share price has always been a massive concern, and has resulted in the already disastrous push to cut costs everywhere, this is about to get a whole lot worse.

Their quality of service is the worst around, how many times have they lost peoples email? How long do you wait on hold? They take weeks to do anything.

They already charge other ISPs phenomenal amounts to use their hardware, and rely on this money. This is biting them in the arse because now other companies are fighting back because it is cheaper for them to upgrade their own broadband exchanges with their own hardware. This has the effect that Telstra loses its monopoly, which it so desperately needs to push ever-higher profit margins. One calculation claimed Telstra was charging other ISPs something along the lines of $300 per hour to use their contractors - when they have no other option but to use them. This money is going to start to vanish in the near future, this is money they rely on.

The only advertising they tried to cut back on was that help-line, which they had to retract.

Their marketshare is dropping rapidly, at least in broadband.

I make this post for the sole reason that I can link to it later on, and say "I told you so."